Market Update July 2025
With Brad O’Connor Ph.D.
TRT: 7m 3s
Video Transcription

Brad O’Connor Directly addresses camera:  There were no real surprises in the Florida housing market in July, based on the latest statistics from Florida Realtors. The July stats were fairly representative of what we've been seeing throughout most of the year, with no real signs of any sudden or significant shifts in the trends. 
One way to see this is by comparing the year-over-year change in July’s statistics to the year-over-year change for the year overall so far. For example, let's look at closed sales of single-family homes. In July, they were up by close to 3% compared to July of last year, and for 2025 overall so far, they are down by about 2 1/2% compared to where we were at this point in 2024. So there was slightly more of a decrease in July versus the year as a whole so far, but we’re still pretty much in line.
While we're at it, let's conduct the same simple analysis for condos and townhouse sales. In July, we observed a nearly 12% decline in closed sales in this category, so it’s clear that the condo and townhouse market remains significantly weaker than the single-family market. However, July’s decline was typical for this category in 2025, which is reflected by the fact that we are also down 12% for the year overall.
Now let's have a look at new pending sales, our measure of how many homes for sale went under contract during the month. We saw a decline here for single-family homes as well, but it was less significant than the one in closed sales, at less than 1%. This may reflect the mild downward movement in mortgage rates that has accompanied weaker labor market data in recent weeks. Interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have been closer to 6 1/2% than 7% as of late. There is a lot of latent demand waiting for home purchases, if only affordability could improve enough. We still have a long way to go for that, but July’s decline in new pending sales is certainly an improvement over our 2.3% decline for the year overall. Over in the condo and townhouse category, new pending sales were down by over 6%, but that is drastically better than the nearly 12% decline we've seen year to date.
Over on the supply side, new listings were down year over year for the third consecutive month for single-family homes, this time falling by nearly 3% in July. For the year, we are still up by nearly 3 1/2%, but that's entirely due to an abundance of new listings that came on to the market in the first two to three months of the year. The recent trend is much more in line with what the July figure shows. The same goes for new listings of condos and townhouses, which were down by close to 11% year over year in July, but due to an excess of new listings at the beginning of the year, they are only down about 2% year to date. Over the next couple of months, we should expect to see figures more like the July figure here. 
Next, let's look at median time to contract, which measures the typical number of days that homes that sold were on the market before going under contract. Among single-family home sales that closed in July, about half of them were on the market for less than 48 days before going under contract, which is nearly 30% longer than a year ago. For the year overall, the typical single-family home has been on the market about 24 to 25% longer than a year ago. Condos and townhouses are taking even longer to sell, with the typical sale in July taking 68 days to go under contract. That's 33% longer than a year ago, but notably, for the year, the typical condo and townhouse sale has taken over 40% longer to go under contract, so there’s been some recent deceleration in the lengthening of time to contract in this category.
Finally, let’s look at median sale prices. In the single-family category in July, the median sale price was $410,000, which is 1.7% below last July’s median price. Despite this being the fifth consecutive month we've seen year-over-year declines in single-family median prices, this was the smallest drop in percentage terms among those months. And for the year overall, the median price is also down by the same amount, 1.7%. So it doesn't appear that price declines are accelerating at a statewide level for single-family homes. 
Over in the condo and townhouse category, the median sale price in July was $295,000, a 6.3% decline compared to a year ago. That makes July the fourth straight month we've seen at least a 6% year over year decline in median price, but it was an improvement over June's drop of 7.7%. Still, price declines in these recent months have been larger than what we saw early in the year, which is why the year-to-date median price in this category is down a little over 4 1/2% compared to a year ago.
The relatively abundant amount of inventory we have in both property type categories is an indication that we still do not have enough prospective buyers relative to sellers to push prices upward. For buyers who can afford to purchase in the current market, this gives them a sizable advantage in price negotiations. This could change as prices and/or interest rates continue to come down, as a lot of sidelined buyers who would love to purchase a home if only the market was a little more affordable would be unlocked and able to compete with the buyers that are already in the market. The recent downward trend in new listings is also giving the remaining sellers more leverage over buyers than earlier in the year, and this has been reflected in the inventory statistics. The active end-of-month inventory for single-family homes at the statewide level peaked in May, and has declined now for two months in a row. Condo and townhouse inventory, meanwhile, peaked at the end of April, and has declined for three consecutive months. It’s now at its lowest level of the year so far.
That's all we have time for this month, but if you're a Realtor and you’re hungry for more insight into the Florida housing market, be sure to attend the Closing Session at the Florida Realtors Annual Convention and Trade Expo at the Rosen Shingle Creek here in Orlando next Tuesday, August 26, at 3:30pm. I'll be giving a much more in-depth analysis of the Florida housing market at that event! Until then, don’t forget to check out your local market statistics for July. Just go to sunstats.floridarealtors.org and log in to view the latest market data for your area. We have the whole state covered down to the city- and ZIP Code-level. Thanks for watching! I’ll see you at next week’s convention, and of course back on here next month for the August numbers.